American Sniper has earned more than every other film put together and
continues to divide audiences. Boyhood (aka '12 Years a White Guy') is
inarguably a wonderful piece of filmmaking and a film unlike any other and Birdman has style to burn.
One
thing you can guarantee will attract complaints however is Neil Patrick
Harris. Despite being dashing and talented, he could give out money and cars and
there'll still be tweets about how much better Amy Poheler and Tina Fey were
hosting the Golden Globes.
Best
Picture
Only
going with eight contenders from a possible ten, this is essentially a tight
two-horse race between “Boyhood” and “Birdman”. Both have done well in the
awards rounds (as has “The Theory of Everything”). Most critics favour “Boyhood”,
but it’s far from a lock in. There hasn’t been this much uncertainty around a
Best Picture race in years.
"American
Sniper" (Clint Eastwood)
"Boyhood"
(Richard Linklater)
"Birdman"
(Alejandro González Iñárritu)
"The
Grand Budapest Hotel" (Wes Anderson)
"The
Imitation Game" (Morten Tyldum)
"Selma"
(Ava DuVernay)
"The
Theory of Everything" (James Marsh)
"Whiplash"
(Damien Chazelle)
Will
Win: "Boyhood"
Could
Win: "Birdman"
Should
Be Here: "Nightcrawler" and "Gone Girl"
Best
Director
Until recent years, Director fell with Editor and Picture
winners, but not any more. So much love has fallen Birdman’s way the Academy is
likely to reward it somewhere, and Iñárritu
has a lot of love in the (big) actor’s guild. Linklater’s achievement is
remarkable though, and a very tough call. I’m arguing that “Birdman”’s marvels
are technically obvious and it’s the sort of thing that’s hard to deny, despite
whether these tricks and marvels actually serve the story or not. In a close
race I see the Director / Picture split to reward each of the favourites, and
as amazing as Linklater’s achievement is, it doesn’t stun in the way “Birdman”
does.
Alejandro
González Iñárritu, "Birdman"
Richard
Linklater, "Boyhood"
Bennett
Miller, "Foxcatcher"
Wes
Anderson, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Morten
Tydlum, "The Imitation Game"
Will
Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu
"Birdman"
Could
Win: Richard Linklater
"Boyhood"
Should
Be Here: Ava DuVernay,
"Selma"
Best
Actor
While it’s not Keaton’s “time” in the way it was
Jeff Bridges’ a few years ago, the preceding festivals have honoured him as if
it’s his wake. An award seem a fitting end to this season. He’s in a very close
race with Eddie Redmayne who has been getting huge raves, won the Screen Actors
Guild and BAFTA award (which historically predicts that the Oscar is his) and
many prognosticators have him down as the likely winner, but I see his youth is
a disadvantage here. It’s a tough one to choose, and it’s grown tougher over
the last few weeks as people point to his farcically bizarre turn in the
expensive and ambitious sci-fi flop “Jupiter Ascending” as counting against
him. He’s played the award circuit beautifully (he even had time to get
married) so it certainly seems like a fairytale time for him. Sometimes two
favourites can split votes, which some are predicting is happening here, and
Bradley Cooper is also emerging as a serious contender, so this is a real
nailbiter.
Steve
Carell, "Foxcatcher"
Bradley
Cooper, "American Sniper"
Benedict
Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
Michael
Keaton, "Birdman"
Eddie
Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"
Will
Win: Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory
of Everything"
Could
Win: Michael Keaton,
"Birdman"
Should
Be Here: Jake Gyllenhaal,
"Nightcrawler"
Best
Actress
Julianne
Moore, on the other hand, is someone whose “time” it most definitely is. She’s
a lock in for Best Actress for a challenging role that no one has a bad thing
to say about. Felicity Jones put in an extraordinary performance that has been
feted everywhere too, but Oscar loves acknowledging a career as much as a role.
Marion
Cotillard, "Two Days, One Night"
Felicity
Jones, "The Theory of Everything"
Julianne
Moore, "Still Alice"
Rosamund
Pike, "Gone Girl"
Reese
Witherspoon, "Wild"
Will
Win: Julianne Moore, "Still
Alice"
Could
Win: Felicity Jones, “The Theory of
Everything”
Should
Be Here: Scarlett Johansson,
"Under The Skin"
Best
Supporting Actor
It
would be very surprising for anyone other than JK Simmons to take this one.
He’s won everything going since last year’s Sundance Festival in the lead up to
Oscar night and this one is his.
Robert
Duvall, "The Judge"
Ethan
Hawke, "Boyhood"
Edward
Norton, "Birdman"
Mark
Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
J.K.
Simmons, "Whiplash"
Will
Win: J.K. Simmons,
"Whiplash"
Could
Win: Edward Norton,
"Birdman"
Should
Be Here: Riz Ahmed, “Nightcrawler”
Best
Supporting Actress
One
of the night’s surest bets, Arquette has been a frontrunner in this category
for at least six months. Her nearest competition, a fiery and bug-eyed Emma
Stone, could surprise as Christoph Waltz did for “Inglorious Basterds” in 2009,
but she’s a long shot and she’ll have further chances. If they use the clip
from “Boyhood” where Arquette is sending her son off to college, she’s a lock
in.
Patricia
Arquette, "Boyhood"
Laura
Dern, "Wild"
Keira
Knightley, "The Imitation Game"
Emma
Stone, "Birdman"
Meryl
Streep, "Into the Woods"
Will
Win: Patricia Arquette,
"Boyhood"
Could
Win: Emma Stone, "Birdman"
Should
Be Here: Jessica Chastain, "A
Most Violent Year"
Best
Editing
Editing
down 12 years of footage seems like the sort of achievement that sticks in the
mind and it’s arguable it could be rewarded here. However, the last-minute love for "American Sniper" with its tension-building cuts and fine action scenes is likely to find some love below the line, and I think here (and in the sound categories) are its best chance. “Whiplash” could easily slip in
– the last ten minutes of that film are also a masterclass in building tension, but most of the love for that film come form the under-4o contingent in the Academy, and they haven't quite got the numbers.
"American
Sniper"
"Boyhood"
"The
Grand Budapest Hotel"
"The
Imitation Game"
"Whiplash"
Will
Win: "American Sniper"
Could
Win: "Whiplash"
Should
Be Here: "Citizenfour"
Best
Original Screenplay
Another
very close race, "The Grand Budapest Hotel" is seen as the favourite,
and a major category win for Wes Anderson would be well-deserved for a film
that no one dislikes. A win for “Birdman” wouldn’t be a surprise and it could
easily trump its main competitor and "The Grand Budapest Hotel".
"Birdman,"
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando
Bo
"Boyhood,"
Richard Linklater
"Foxcatcher,"
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
"The
Grand Budapest Hotel," Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson and Hugo
Guinness
"Nightcrawler,"
Dan Gilroy
Will
Win: "The Grand Budapest
Hotel"
Could
Win: "Birdman"
Should
Be Here: "Selma"
Best
Adapted Screenplay
The
best chance for a win for “The Imitation Game” lies here, and it would be harsh
for the film to go home with nothing. “Inherent Vice” is just too oddball to
get enough votes, and though “Whiplash” is beloved, it will likely be seen as
‘too indie’ by enough of the Academy who all will have been exposed to Harvey
Weinstein’s ‘a vote for the Imitation Game is a vote for Alan Turing’ campaign.
"American
Sniper," Jason Hall
"The
Imitation Game," Graham Moore
"Inherent
Vice," Paul Thomas Anderson
"The
Theory of Everything," Anthony McCarten
"Whiplash,"
Damien Chazelle
Will
Win: "The Imitation Game"
Could
Win: "Whiplash"
Should
Be Here: "Gone Girl"
Best
Cinematography
A
stunning tour de force of artistry and orchestration, Lubezki was once the
eternal nominee until last year’s win with “Gravity” and he’s a near lock-in to
take home this year’s too. Few in the industry would begrudge him this despite
the field. Deakins is well overdue for his, but he’ll likely have to wait, probably
for 2017’s Oscars where he will likely be nominated for the Coen Brothers’
“Hail, Caesar!”
"Birdman,"
Emmanuel Lubezki
"The
Grand Budapest Hotel," Robert Yeoman
"Ida,"
Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
"Mr.
Turner," Dick Pope
"Unbroken,"
Roger Deakins
Will
Win: "Birdman"
Could
Win: "Unbroken" or "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Should
Be Here: "Under The Skin"
Makeup and Hairstyling
In a
gesture that will seem to say ‘look, we don’t just reward famous people who
look like someone else’ "The Grand Budapest Hotel" will likely beat Foxcatcher
here. By a nose.
“Foxcatcher”
"The
Grand Budapest Hotel"
“Guardians
of the Galaxy”
Will
Win: "The Grand Budapest
Hotel"
Could
Win: "Foxcatcher"
Should
Be Here: "Into the Woods"
Best
Costume Design
The
Academy, and, in fact most of us, love a strong Costume contender that you can
sum up in a eye-catching frame, and "The Grand Budapest Hotel" is
full of eye-catching frames. It will likely win big and win here.
"The
Grand Budapest Hotel," Milena Canonero
"Inherent
Vice," Mark Bridges
"Into
the Woods," Colleen Atwood
"Maleficent,"
Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
"Mr.
Turner," Jacqueline Durran
Will
Win: "The Grand Budapest
Hotel"
Could
Win: "Into the Woods"
Should
Be Here: "A Most Violent
Year"
Best
Production Design
It’s
hard to miss the work that went into "The Grand Budapest Hotel" and
you can expect it to be deservedly rewarded here.
"The
Grand Budapest Hotel"
"The
Imitation Game"
"Interstellar"
"Into
the Woods"
"Mr.
Turner"
Will
Win: "The Grand Budapest
Hotel"
Could
Win: "Mr. Turner"
Should
Be Here: "Selma"
Best
Original Score
Good
lord Alexandre Desplat, give someone else a turn. His seventh and eighth
nominations come this year, and it could be the year he finally wins. Those
both his scores are strong, people seem to remember “The Theory of
Everything”’s score more easily. Jóhannsson has already won the Golden Globe,
and I’m picking him. Expect to see RMIT graduate Ben Frost here in the next few
years.
"The
Grand Budapest Hotel," Alexandre Desplat
"The
Imitation Game," Alexandre Desplat
"Interstellar,"
Hans Zimmer
"Mr.
Turner," Gary Yershon
"The
Theory of Everything," Jóhann Jóhannsson
Will
Win: "The Theory of Everything"
Could
Win: "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
Should
Be Here: "Under The Skin"
Best
Original Song
This
is likely to be the ‘moment’ we can acknowledge the staggering injustices
perpetrated on African Americans by old white American men, and the infinitely
more trivial injustices perpetrated by old white men of the Academy.
Overlooking Ava DuVernay for Best Director and David Oyolowo for Best Actor for
their brilliant turns in the story of Martin Luther King and the march from
Selma to Montgomery to demand voting rights will have to make do with a nod to
a song by John Legend an Common. The song is fine, and it does contain an overt
reference to Ferguson riots early on which will jar beautifully when they
perform it, but I’m sure a bunch of people will be disappointed “Everything is
Awesome” won’t take it.
"Everything
Is Awesome" from "The Lego Movie"; Music and Lyric by Shawn
Patterson
"Glory"
from "Selma"; Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
"Grateful"
from "Beyond the Lights"; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
"I’m
Not Gonna Miss You" from "Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me"; Music and
Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
"Lost
Stars" from "Begin Again"; Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander
and Danielle Brisebois
Will
Win: "Glory"
Could
Win: "Everything Is
Awesome"
Should
Be Here: "Spooks" from
Inherent Vice
Best
Sound Editing
The push to acknowledge “American Sniper”
will likely find love here, though “Birdman” is likely to be the (’it won more
though it didn’t win the most coveted categories’) in its race against
“Boyhood” and this is a category where it’s likely to pick up a nod.
“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Interstellar”
“Unbroken”
“Whiplash”
Will
Win: "American Sniper"
Could
Win: "Birdman"
Should
Be Here: "Under the Skin”
Best
Sound Mixing
Never an easy category to predict, the
divisive “American Sniper” could pick this up, as there is a long history of
war movies being rewarded here, though “Birdman” made a strong case for winning
this with its overt layering of sound.
“American Sniper”
“Birdman”
“Interstellar”
“Unbroken”
“Whiplash”
Will
Win: "American Sniper"
Could
Win: "Birdman"
Should
Be Here: "Fury”
Best
Visual Effects
At last, a list of films that actually got
shown in cinemas. Tough to predict the Academy hivemind here. “Interstellar” for all its vaulting ambition
may be rewarded here, though they do love throwing a bone to blockbusters here
and “Apes” or “Guardians” could easily nab it. One of the few Australians in
this years field turns up as part of the team nominated for “X-Men: Days of
Future Past”, go Adelaide’s Tim Crosbie!
“Captain America: The Winter Soldier”
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
“Guardians of the Galaxy”
“Interstellar”
“X-Men: Days of Future Past”
Will
Win: "Interstellar"
Could
Win: "Dawn of the Planet of the
Apes"
Should
Be Here: "The LEGO Movie”
Best
Foreign Film
Best
Foreign Film, for its idiosyncratic selection procedure, accusations of bias
and snubs so egregious that the award has become almost irrelevant to the
prospects of the winner, has turned out a batch of very watchable films this
year. “Ida”, with its surprise nomination in Cinematography, is the favourite,
though a strong campaign for Argentina’s “Wild Tales” could see this sneak in
for the upset.
"Ida"
(Poland)
"Leviathan"
(Russia)
"Tangerines"
(Georgia)
"Timbuktu"
(Mali)
"Wild
Tales" (Argentina)
Will
Win: "Ida"
Could
Win: "Wild Tales"
Should
Be Here: "Force Majeure"
Best
Animated Film
Cries
of ‘OMG, where is ”The LEGO Movie”?’ are still finding their way into throats
of people across America as office parties assemble to fill out their Oscars
pools, and it is one of the most notable surprises in the field. “Big Hero 6”
has been adored by almost everyone who’s seen it (with a lot of adults
admitting to tearing up), but “How To Train Your Dragon 2”, a step up on the
massively successful and beloved original, is the favourite. Personally, The
Tale of Princess Kaguya, a stunning hand-drawn tale, is a film to watch if you
haven’t already.
"Big
Hero 6"
"The
Boxtrolls"
"How
to Train Your Dragon 2"
"Song
of the Sea"
"The
Tale of the Princess Kaguya"
Will
Win: "How to Train Your Dragon
2"
Could
Win: "The Tale of the Princess
Kaguya"
Should
Be Here: "The LEGO
Movie"
Best
Documentary Feature
As I wrote elsewhere, “Citizenfour” is one of the
more exciting documentary films to have been released in the last few years.
It’s beautifully assembled and compellingly told, and doesn’t come with an
agenda to push. It’s also the most hyped, the most awarded and most seen of the
batch and is a virtual lock in for the win.
"Citizenfour"
"Finding
Vivian Maier"
"Last
Days in Vietnam"
"Virunga"
"The
Salt of the Earth"
Will
Win: "Citizenfour"
Could
Win: "Virunga"
Should
Be Here: "The Case Against
8"
Short
Film – Animated
“Feast” benefits from having played before
‘Big Hero 6’ so is the likely winner here, though all of these are worthy, if
heavy on the cute side.
“The Bigger Picture”
“The Damn Keeper”
“Feast”
“Me and My Moulton”
“A Single Life”
Short
Film – Documentary
Having not seen all of these, the film
about old white men, “Crisis Hotline”, seems like the safest bet for a group of
voters whose demographics are so well known. Having said that, the short film
categories are voted on by a much smaller group of people, those who watch all
nominees, so we’re talking about a group of old white men with time on their
hands, which makes “Crisis Hotline” seem an ever safer bet.
“Crisis Hotline” Veterans Press 1”
“Joanna”
“Our Curse”
“The Reaper (La Parka)”
“White Earth”
Short
Film – Live Action
“Boogaloo and Graham” is the safest pick
here from a very diverse group, though “Aya” is the most cinematic.
“Aya”
“Boogaloo and Graham”
“Butter Lamp (La Lampe au Beurre de Yak)”
“Parvaneh”
“The Phone Call”
